Wharton School of Business, Pennsylvania, 1926: Economist and chairman for multiple women’s hosiery companies George Taylor sits at a large desk, writing a lengthy thesis covering the positive correlation between the economy and the hosiery industry through the 1920s. Little did he know, his thesis would become one of the most debated topics in the history of fashion. As you may know, the “roaring twenties” was an era full of economic development, with a surge of expressionism in comparison to the drab years of the period that followed– the Great Depression. While Taylor’s thesis focused on the ups and downs of the hosiery industry in relation to the economy, only a small part of his research seemed to be received by the public– the idea that skirt lengths had the power to predict the economy. It sounds insane when you think about it, but at the time it made a lot of sense. Through a series of oral explanations, sort of like the game ‘telephone’ you played as a child, his thesis became this: the future of the economy lay in the general length of skirts women were wearing that season— the shorter the hemline, the better the economy. However, this claim has many flaws, which have since been analyzed by multiple fashion experts and economists alike. 

By far the most debated factor of the entire theory is the role of longer hemlines. The question was— does a longer hemline signal prosperity or hardship? It was originally thought that a longer hemline was meant to “reflect the somber mood of empty bank accounts” (Komar, 2020). In some aspects, this could make sense. It was thought that textile companies charged more for their fabric in economic booms, so the dress companies would shorten hemlines to save a quick buck. On the other hand, many argued that longer hemlines meant luxury, such as the elegant evening gowns women splurged on for their nightly escapades. The more fabric, Komar claims, the more it cost, and therefore the more money you had left after bills were paid. Whatever your perspective, the interrelationship between skirt lengths and wealth is a subjective interpretation of an era’s fashion trends.

But how does the hemline index persist through time, if it exists at all? There are three major prongs to this theory of the Hemline Index as it exists in modern day: 

1. The Hemline Index is not a predictor at all, but a lagging indicator of our economy
2. Fashion is our reaction to the world rather than a reflection of it
3. The Hemline Index in its entirety is no longer applicable

Point one: The Hemline Index is a lagging indicator

To understand what this means, it’s best to explain what the three types of economic indicators are. 

1. Leading indicators are those which change before the economy does, alerting the public to upcoming changes. The most prominent and easily understood example of a leading indicator is the stock market. Originally, the Hemline Index was thought to be a leading indicator, reflecting the economy before a change could be identified in the financial system. 
2. The second economic indicator is a Coincident indicator. Like it sounds, these are indicators that change along with the economy, such as income levels and trade sales. 
3. A confirmation of long term trends is what is called a lagging indicator. These indicators may be a factor in determining the financial system, but are statistically not as useful as the previous two. Lagging indicators are typically seen long after change occurs– like interest and unemployment rates, and inflation. A Marketwatch article titled, “How Do Recessions Impact Fashion Trends? Beyond the Hemline Index”, states that in an economic study done by Marjolein van Baardwijk and Philip Hans Franses, they found that on average short skirts were in fashion three to four years following an economic boom, meaning that while the “hemline index” is not technically a predictor of anything, it still may be considered an economic indicator (Marketwatch, 2022).

This is not to say the length of skirts is entirely unreliable for seeing the economy as it is. Economists, according to Assistant Director of the Reynold’s Center Julianne Culey, “use a combination of indicators to predict the economy’s next moves”— meaning the Hemline Index (and fashion in general) is not out of the question (Culey, 2025). 

There are plenty of other fashion indicators that may be a factor in the determination of financial status, including but not limited to the lipstick index, high heel index, and male underwear index. In the early 2000s, during an economic downturn, Chairman Leonard Lauder of makeup company Estee Lauder coined the term “Lipstick Index”. This described the idea that in said downturns the sale of small products, in this case lipstick, went way up. While this theory is not entirely correct, it can be boiled down to this: when the economy does not allow the public a lot of extra money, they splurge on smaller products to quench the desire for the larger purchases they cannot afford. 

The high heel index, on the other hand, claims that the worse the economy was, the higher the heels women wore. This theory has an exception— if after a few months the economy is not back to normal, heel heights begin to lower. This is notable in the financial crisis of 2008, when heel heights rose to an average of just 11 inches. By 2011, though the economy had not fully recovered, heel heights were back to a low average of two inches. Perhaps the most riveting indicator of them all is the male underwear index. This trend was first identified by former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, who claimed that in a “fiscally restrictive environment”, contrary to the lipstick index, men held off on replacing their underwear until things levelled out (Forbes, 2023). Whether these indicators create statistical differences in the economic world I can not say, but it’s sure fun to theorize.

Point two: our fashion choices are our reaction to the economy, not the other way around

Political Fashion notes that in the 1900s, styles became more risky or “dolled up” when times were hard. Despite the historically scandalous length of skirts in the roaring 20s, the war era of the 40s and 50s proved to turn out women sporting dresses with elegant silhouettes in comparison to those of the later decades. Maybe it was the self-expression of the century, or maybe it was because women were forced to make their own clothes or buy expensive, long lasting ones in order to save a penny; either way, the 20th century completely contradicts the things we know to be true in our society today.

Nazeefa Ahmed with The Gauntlet affirms that “after the pandemic, fashion is what we reach to for comfort.” When the pandemic hit, it was a catastrophically significant event that shocked the nation, which reflected in the clothing choices of the era. Where the previous decade centered around unconfined and bright styles, the 2020s brought sweats and workout clothes for our long stays indoors. Alternatively, the period after the pandemic pushed people to focus more on their individuality, pushing women to wear skirts as a way to “reclaim their femininity after wearing sweats and workout clothes for most of the pandemic” (Ahmed, 2022).

Surprisingly, as of late people have been reaching more toward well-made clothing instead of the fast fashion sites that were most popular for their convenience in 2020. Marlen Komar, a journalist with Instyle, noted the public’s sudden concern with how and where their clothes were being made, leaning more toward overlooked communities and small businesses. Even during the economic decline, people are leaning further away from the safety of online shopping at large corporations and supporting small, local businesses to get clothes that will last longer and prove to be better quality. In a time when you risk everything collapsing under your feet, when society is always looking for something cheap and easy, sometimes splurging on a product that will last you a long time is a welcome change.  

Whether it’s the bold post-war creativity of making your own clothes out of potato sacks, or putting on your comfiest sweats on your way to wince at the prices on the shelf of the grocery store, fashion IS a dictator of the way we feel, and expresses even our subconscious desire to be comforted.

Point three: the Hemline Index is no longer applicable in modern day

At some point, trends must change with society or they should be left behind. Many fashion experts and economists alike believe this ought to be the case with the Hemline Index, claiming that it no longer fits the expectations or the roles of women in the modern day, and should be scrapped altogether.

The biggest argument against the Hemline Index is that succeeding the 1990s, individual fashion choices became the norm. Even if the hemline index did exist at some point in history, it serves little purpose in the era of self-expression (and women being able to wear pants). Even measuring the skirt length of women that do predominantly wear the attire does not make it generalizable, and in fact would produce a scatter plot of a graph. 

What the Hemline Index theory does not account for is the climate. Michael Sincere, a journalist for a financial page called marketwatch writes that the economy has never been at play in fashion, instead the general temperature of the area , and the amount of fabric available to make a high quality piece. How can we be sure that alleged “economic declines” as predicted by the length of skirts were not just women putting on their warmest dress in the chilly winter air? Michael visited two Florida fashion shows and spoke to model Kira Alvirado, who stated that, “In South Beach the style is always short” (Sincere, 2010). She wasn’t wrong— temperature plays a big part in the way people dress and the clothes they are willing to buy.

As stated earlier, trends need to adapt to the everchanging society. Even the “lipstick index” has recently been replaced by the “fragrance index”, which holds the same overarching idea, but states that in an economic decline as we are going through now, Gen Z customers have been purchasing an extensive amount of perfumes to make up for the fact that they can not afford other major purchases. 

Though in recent years the hemline index has been scrutinized more closely, the long-held belief that the length of skirts can determine the future of the economy is a hard one to shake. People like theorizing, even if it totally disregards logic. It’s time to face the idea that the Hemline Index is just not as rational as it used to be. In the words of aforementioned Michael Sincere, “you took us on a marvelous ride, George Taylor, but your ritzy indicator is not in Vogue anymore” (Taylor, 2010).